Nvidia earnings, the PCE index and other things to watch this week.
Market Moves
Weekly Recap
- Stocks pulled back. Major indexes declined after softer-than-expected PMI data on U.S. economic activity created concerns over slow economic growth and sticky inflation. The S&P 500 had hit an all-time closing high on Wednesday but closed down about 1.7% on Friday. The Dow Jones dropped nearly 3% while the NASDAQ dropped a little over 2%. The Dow was also pressured by a 7% drop in UnitedHealth's stock, as the company is reportedly under investigation by the Department of Justice.
- Yields dropped. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.4%, more than reversing last week's CPI spike.
- Chinese stocks exploded. U.S., Chinese technology stocks surged to their highest since 2022, with shares of Alibaba popping 14% following the company's strong earnings results.
- Oil went lower. WTI oil is down more than 2% to about $70. This is the lowest price this year.
- Jobless claims edged higher. Initial jobless claims rose to 219,000 this past week, slightly above estimates calling for 215,000.
- Leading Economic Index ticked lower. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI), which is intended to provide an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term, declined 0.3% to 101.5 in January.
- Earnings remained a bright spot. The S&P 500 is on track for its highest quarterly earnings increase in three years, with profits growing 17% from a year ago compared with expectations of 12% growth before earnings season started.
- Walmart shares lagged. The big box retailer hit analyst expectations for the fourt quarter but reported a disappointing outlook.
- Alibaba posted better-than-expected earnings. The company said it would “invest aggressively” into AI over the next three years.
- Important economic data this week. Investors are waiting for the release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the "core" Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which will be released on Friday. A second estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter as well as updates on consumer confidence and housing prices are expected. Over the prior month, economists project "core" PCE at 0.3%, above the 0.2% seen the month prior.
- Nvidia's earnings this week are a top focus. The chipmaker will release its quarterly report after the bell on Wednesday. Analysts expect Nvidia to report adjusted earnings per share of $0.84, up 63% from the year prior. Meanwhile, revenue is projected to be $38.26 billion, up 73% from the same quarter last year.
- Other big names reporting this week are Home Depot, Salesforce, and Lowe's.
- Nvidia (NVIDA)
- Nu Holdings Limited (NU)
- Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
- Intel (INTC)
- Super Micro Computers (SMCI)
Biggest Gainers
- Pony AI Inc. (PONY) +32.05%
- Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) +27.77%
- Vicor Corp. (VICR) +22.77%
- Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) +12.08%
- Zai Lab Limited (ZLAB) +9.00%
Biggest Losers
- Globant S.A. (GLOB) – 27.81%
- Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) – 25.79%
- Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) – 21.73%
- Glaukos Corp. (GKOS) – 20.01%
- CarGurus, Inc. (CARG) -17.13%
Weekly Notables
Walmart Issued Soft Outlook
Big box retailer Walmart continued ts consistent mid-single-digits revenue growth in the fourth quarter, with revenue increasing 4.1%, or 5.3% in constant currencies, to $180.6 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) soared 10% to $0.66. The results came in past analyst estimates calling for revenue of $180 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.64, per LSEG. In the U.S., Walmart store sales rose by 5% to $123.5 billion, while same-store sales jumped 4.6% without fuel. The company forecast fiscal 2026 revenue to increase between 3% to 4% in constant currencies, with adjusted EPS to come in at a range of $2.50 to $2.60. It also said it was looking for adjusted operating income growth of 3.5% to 5.5%. For the first quarter, it is looking for revenue growth of 3% to 4% and adjusted EPS of between $0.57 to $0.58.
DOJ Launches UnitedHealth Billing Probe
UnitedHealth shares dropped amid report of DOJ Medicare billing probe by the WSJ. The investigation examines Medicare Advantage billing practices for extra payments. The health insurer said it was unaware of any new probe underway.
The Week Ahead
- Potential market moving catalysts this week: There are no major reports scheduled for Monday. On Tuesday investors can look forward to the Consumer Confidence, FHFA Housing Price Index, and S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Wednesday will have the EIA Crude Oil Inventories, MBA Mortgage Applications Index, New Home Sales. Investors can turn to Thursday for Continuing Claims, Durable Goods, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, GDP – Second Estimate, Initial Claims, and Pending Home Sales. To wrap up the week Friday will offer Advanced International Trade in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories, Advanced Wholesale Inventories, Chicago PMI, PCE Prices, Personal Income, Personal Spending
- Earnings on deck this week: Monday (2/24): Domino's Pizza Inc. (DPZ), Owens Corning (OC), Westlake Corp. (WLK), ONEOK Inc. (OKE), Public Storage (PSA), Realty Income Corp. (O), Diamondback Energy Inc. (FANG), Zoom Communications Inc. (ZM), Hims & Hers Health Inc. (HIMS). Tuesday (2/25): Home Depot Inc. (HD), American Tower Corp. (AMT), Bank of Montreal (BMO), Intuit Inc. (INTU), Workday Inc. (WDAY), Coupang Inc. (CPNG), Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR), Keysight Technologies Inc. (KEYS). Wednesday (2/26): Lowe's Companies Inc. (LOW), Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA (BUD), NRG Energy Inc. (NRG), TJX companies Inc. (TJX), NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), Salesforce Inc. (CRM), Snowflake Inc. (SNOW). Thursday (2/27): Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD), Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL), Autodesk Inc. (ADSK), HP Inc. (HPQ), NetApp Inc. (NTAP). Friday (2/28): Chart Industries Inc. (GTLS), Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR), FuboTV Inc. (FUBO), Frontline PLC (FRO)