S&P 500 – 6,915.61 (+0.033%)

Dow Jones – 49,098.71 (-0.58%)

NASDAQ – 23,501.24 (+0.28%)

• Stock Market Summary: Major equity indexes finished mixed after a two-day relief rally, with Greenland-related concerns fading. For the week, stocks posted a modest decline, though energy and materials outperformed, and broader market leadership trends remained intact. Small-caps, value stocks, and precious metals continue to attract investor interest, while mega-cap tech stocks advanced ahead of earnings. WTI crude closed higher at $61, and government bond yields and the U.S. dollar declined.
• Trump Threatens Canada: President Trump warned of 100% tariffs on Canadian goods if Canada finalizes a trade deal with China, reversing his earlier support for the agreement.
• Federal Reserve Outlook: The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady, asserting independence amid political and global pressures. Recent economic data show solid growth and steady labor-market conditions. Markets now project a slightly flatter path for rate cuts, with the fed funds rate near 3.2% by year-end. Kevin Warsh or Rick Rieder are reportedly under consideration as the next Fed chair, while the Supreme Court expressed skepticism toward Trump’s attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook.
• Precious Metals Surge: Silver topped $100/oz for the first time, and gold neared $5,000 as investors flocked to safe-haven metals amid geopolitical tensions and interest rate uncertainty.
• Berkshire Signals Kraft Heinz Sale: CEO Greg Abel hinted at a potential sale of Kraft Heinz shares, signaling a cleanup of Berkshire Hathaway’s investment portfolio.
• Meta Cuts Reality Labs Jobs: Meta laid off approximately 10% of Reality Labs staff and shifted focus toward AI and smart glasses, sparking fears of a VR industry slowdown.
• Earnings & Corporate Moves:
  • Intel shares plunged nearly 17% after issuing weaker guidance tied to manufacturing challenges.
  • Capital One (COF) fell after missing EPS expectations, though revenue was in line.
  • Rare earth stocks continued their strong run amid geopolitical tensions.
  • Spotify (SPOT) rose following a Goldman Sachs upgrade to “buy.”
  • Boeing (BA) jumped to a 52-week high ahead of earnings, with analysts seeing potential profitability returning.
  • Meta Platforms (META) surged in a likely technical rebound after hitting two-month lows.
  • Small-Cap & Market Breadth: The Russell 2000® outpaced the S&P 500 for the 15th consecutive session, the longest streak since 1996, signaling strong domestic sentiment. Market breadth remained healthy, with 68% of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages.
• Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin (/BTC) slipped 0.2%, holding just below the $90,000 psychological mark.

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“Canada is the only country in the world that knows how to live without an identity.” – Marshall McLuhan

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Notable Stocks

• Nvidia (NVDA)
• Meta Platforms (META)
• Intel (INTC)
• Capital One (COF)
• Spotify (SPOT)

Weekly Notables

Trump Warns Canada of 100% Tariffs Over China Trade Agreement

President Donald Trump warned Saturday that the United States would impose a 100% tariff on all Canadian goods if Canada finalizes a trade agreement with China.  “If Canada makes a deal with China, it will immediately be hit with a 100% Tariff against all Canadian goods and products coming into the U.S.A.,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social. Trump argued that China could attempt to use Canada as a conduit to bypass U.S. tariffs. “If Governor Carney thinks he is going to make Canada a ‘Drop Off Port’ for China to send goods and products into the United States, he is sorely mistaken,” Trump said, referring to Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Tense Fed Is Set to Lead Global Peers with Interest-Rate Hold

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady this week, positioning itself at the forefront of a broader pause among major global central banks at a politically and economically tense moment. Fed officials are expected to defy President Donald Trump’s calls for lower borrowing costs when they conclude their two-day meeting on Wednesday. Central banks in Brazil, Canada, and Sweden are also likely to keep rates unchanged.

Earnings Spotlight: Meta Platforms (META)

Meta Platforms (META) is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on January 28, 2026, after the market closes. Wall Street analysts expect diluted earnings per share (EPS) of approximately $8.19 on revenue of approximately $58.35 billion. 

What's Ahead

With Greenland trade threats easing, attention turns to corporate profits. About one-third of S&P 500 companies are set to report Q4 results this coming week, including four of the “Magnificent 7” tech leaders (Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, Apple). S&P 500 Q4 earnings are projected to rise roughly 8% YoY, extending a streak of ten consecutive quarters of growth. Consensus EPS forecasts for 2026 have risen over the past six months, now pointing to nearly 15% growth across all 11 sectors, reflecting increased productivity without a meaningful rise in headcount.

The first Fed meeting of 2026 is also next week, with no policy change anticipated and bond markets pricing in only a 3% chance of a rate cut. 

Economic:

• Monday (Jan. 26): Durable Orders
• Tuesday (Jan. 27): Consumer Confidence, FHFA Housing Price Index, New Home Sales, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
• Wednesday (Jan. 28): Advanced International Trade in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories, Advanced Wholesale Inventories, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, MBA Mortgage Applications Index
• Thursday (Jan. 29): Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Factory Orders, Initial Claims, Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories
• Friday (Jan. 30): Producer Price Index (PPI), Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)

Earnings:

• Monday (Jan. 26): AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC), Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc. (ARE), Bank of Hawaii Corp. (BOH), Brown & Brown Inc. (BRO), Crane Co. (CR), Graco Inc. (GGG), Nucor Corp. (NUE), Ryanair Holdings PLC (RYAAY), Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD), W.R. Berkley Corp. (WRB)
• Tuesday (Jan. 27): Boeing Co. (BA), General Motors Co. (GM), F5 Inc. (FFIV), HCA Healthcare Inc. (HCA), Nextera Energy Inc. (NEE), Nextpower Inc. (NXT), Packaging Corp of America (PKG), PPG Industries Inc. (PPG), RTX Corp. (RTX), Seagate Technologies (STX), Texas Instruments (TXN), Union Pacific Corp. (UNP), United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS)
• Wednesday (Jan. 28): Amphenol Corp. (APH), ASML Holding NV (ASML), AT&T Inc. (T), Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP), Danaher Corp. (DHR), General Dynamic (GD), GE Vernova Inc. (GEV), International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), Lam Research Corp. (LRCX), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), ServiceNow Inc. (NOW), Starbucks (SBUX), Tesla Inc. (TSLA), United Rentals Inc. (URI)
• Thursday (Jan. 29): Apple Inc. (AAPL), Blackstone Inc. (BX), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), Honeywell International Inc. (HON), KLA corp. (KLAC), Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT), Mastercard Inc. (MA), Parker-Hannifin Corp. (PH), SanDisk Corp. (SNDK), Visa Inc. (V), Western Digital Corp. (WDC)
• Friday (Jan. 30): Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (APD), American Express Co. (AXP), AON PLC (AON), Chevron Corp. (CVX), Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL), Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (REGN), Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)