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Fed rate decision this week is EVERYTHING!

0 year ago
Weekly Recap
  • Stocks saw a strong rebound this week. September has seen volatility with losses in the first week of the month. This week stocks saw a reversal with all three major indexes closing in the green on Friday and posting weekly gains in the range of 3%-6%.
  • Rising confidence was seen in consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index, a monthly indicator that tracks U.S. consumer sentiment, extended its positive momentum. Friday’s 69.0 preliminary figure was up slightly from the 67.9 reading in August, when the gauge rose for the first time in five months. Consumers’ expectations of inflation over the next year remained at their lowest level since December 2020.
  • The Consumer Price Index reading was also encouraging. Stocks rose after a Consumer Price Index reading provided one of the last data points for the U.S. Federal Reserve to possibly lower interest rates. The inflation report showed that consumer prices rose at a 2.5% annual rate in August, down from July’s 2.9% figure and the lowest since February 2021.
  • Yields of U.S. government bonds dropped more. The yields extended their recent slide amid expectations of an interest-rate cut. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond sank to the lowest level since June 2023. The closing yield on Friday was 3.66%, down from a recent high of 4.70% in April.
  • All eyes are on the Fed meeting this week. A rate cut is probably coming Wednesday at the end of a two-day meeting of the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee. It has been 54 months, since March 2020, that the Fed cut rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed market expectations for a cut when he declared in an August 23 speech that “the time has come for policy to adjust.” It is not known whether the Fed will implement a 0.25% cut or a bigger 0.50% reduction. The rate decision, which will be announced at 2 p.m. Wednesday, may move the market.
  • Gold continued to hit new records. The price of gold futures on Friday rose above $2,600 per ounce for the first time.  extending a recent price surge for the precious metal. At the end of last year, gold was trading around $2,060; it eclipsed the $2,500 level for the first time on August 19.
Most Active Stocks
  • Nvidia Corp. (NVDA)
  • Uber Technologies (UBER)
  • Pfizer (PFE)
  • B2FGold (BTG)
  • United States Steel Corp. (X)

Biggest Gainers

  • RH (RH) +25.49%
  • Trump Media and Technology Group (DJT) +11.79%
  • Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) +8.75%
  • Denali Therapeutics (DNLI) +10.05%
  • Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD) +10.84%

Biggest Losers

  • Adobe, Inc. (ADBE) -8.47%
  • Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) -3.96%
  • Bilibili (BILI) - 3.76%
  • The Boeing Company (BA) -3.69%
  • Exact Sciences Corp. (EXAS) -2.75%

Weekly Notables

Tesla Gets Price Target Increase.

Guggenheim Partners boosted its price target for TESLA shares to $153 from $134 on Sept. 13, while keeping a sell rating on the stock, according to The Fly. According to Ron Jewsikow, the firm rolls its valuation basis forward one year in conjunction with "modestly improved demand trends" as it is updating its delivery and margin forecasts to incorporate quarter-to-date data, a brief analysis of the used vehicle market for Tesla and detailed regional assumptions.

Disney and DirectTV finally settle blackout.

Disney and DirecTV reached an agreement to end a blackout in time for college football on Saturday. The networks have been dark for DirecTV’s customers for roughly two weeks, leaving them without college football, the U.S. Open and “Monday Night Football.”

The Week Ahead

  • Potential market moving catalysts this week include: Retail sales, from e U.S. Census Bureau on Tuesday as well as industrial production and capacity utilization from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Business inventories from the U.S. Census Bureau as well as housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders will be announced on Tuesday as well. Housing starts from the U.S. Census Bureau is anticipated for Wednesday. Weekly unemployment claims, from the U.S. Department of Labor is on deck for Friday.
  • Likely cut rates. At its two-day meeting concluding on Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to deliver its first interest-rate reduction since early 2020.
  • Earnings on deck this week include: SunCar Technology Group, Ennis, Quantum Computing, Celularity, Value Line, Compass Minerals International, Eagle Pharmaceuticals, General Mills, AstroNova, Wrap Technologies, FedEx, Darden Restaurants, iHuman, and Santech Holdings.

Earnings Spotlight: FedEx 

Impressive growth prospects are in store for global shipping company FedEx. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings per share is currently pegged at $20.82, indicating 1.4% growth from 2024 level. The mark of fiscal 2026 EPS is expected to grow 3.7% from the fiscal 2025 estimate. The company will disclose its second-quarter results after Tuesday's close.  Analysts, on average, expect the entertainment and dining chainto report earnings of 84 cents per share, up 40% on a year-over-year (YoY) basis. Revenue is forecast to arrive at $560.7 million (+3.4% YoY). According to an analyst, expectations are "seemingly very low" for PLAY this time around "and maybe the quarter acts as a 'clearing event' for the shares to find some near-term support." 

 

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