Big bank earnings this week could save the market.
Dow Jones - 37,645.59 (-0.84%)
Nasdaq - 15,267.91 (-2.15%)
S&P 500 - 4,982.77 (-1.57%)
Weekly Recap- Morning gains fizzled by the end of the day. U.S. equity markets closed lower on Tuesday, reversing the gains they saw at the open. Tariff headlines continue to loom and drag investor confidence down. The S&P 500 index (SPX) appeared to be resilient as traders bought the dip after the index swung briefly into bear market territory yesterday down 20% from recent highs. Every major index still closed in the red.
- Tariff and economic concerns. Reports had surfaced that the U.S. will impose an additional 50% tariff on imports from China in response to the 34% retaliatory tariffs China announced last week. Schwab Chief Global Investment Strategist Jeffrey Kleintop in his latest analysis said: "The drop in oil prices as well as the decline in the dollar and bond yields show evidence that investors are considering the possibility of a broader economic slowdown, particularly in the U.S., instead of just shifting trade patterns."
- Yield jumps. The yield on the 10-year note jumped 0.17 percentage points Monday to about 4.16%, and it climbed even more relative to intraday lows. After a sharp move higher yesterday, bond yields continued their upward trend today with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbing to 4.28%.
- U.S. dollar is steady. The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) continues to show resilience after initially getting sold off last week.
- The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) remains elevated. The index however sank to around 40 on Tuesday morning after touching 60 on Monday for the first time since last August.
- Oil prices fell. Oil prices settled down more than $1 a barrel on Tuesday at a four-year low as investors remain concerned over an escalating trade war between the U.S. and China. Brent futures settled down $1.39, or 2.16%, at $62.82 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled down $1.12, or 1.85%, at $59.58.
- Bitcoin (/BTC) moved up nearly 2%. The leading cryptocurrency is still down 25% from its all-time high before the tariff news.
- Rate cut projection. The CME FedWatch Tool shows roughly 28% chances of the Fed cutting rates 25 basis points at its early May meeting, down from 50-50 just 24 hours ago.
- Small Business Optimism Falls. On the economic front, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index declined to 97.4 in March, slightly below the long-run average of 98, and signaling that policy uncertainty is beginning to weigh on sentiment in small businesses. This is the third straight month the Index has fallen and hiring expectations have slipped.
- Key inflation data. The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is due Thursday. "Early estimates point to a slight month-over-month increase and year-over-year inflation easing to 2.6%," said Schwab's Kleintop. "The report may establish the basis from which future tariff-impacted price changes are measured from." A month ago, CPI looked relatively benign but was followed by a February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index reading that topped expectations.
- Major banks will report on Friday. For the first three months of the year, analysts expect big bank profits to be down compared to the year-ago period at JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Citigroup and Morgan Stanley are both expected to be up.
- Next week features key chip sector quarterly earnings. Reports will arrive from ASML (ASML) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM).
- IPO delays. StubHub and Klarna decided to postpone their IPOs, while Chime delayed its plans to go public, according to the Wall Street Journal. Trading platform eToro Group Ltd also paused its planned listing, along with MNTN Inc. and insurer Ategrity Specialty Holdings, according to Bloomberg. "Investors and founders want to see stability," Columbia professor Angela Lee told Yahoo Finance on Monday. "We are at an incredibly unstable place."
- Gains from Apple, Broadcom, and Nvidia. iPhone maker Apple jumped more than 2% early Tuesday but has fallen 19% over the last three sessions, the worst three-session streak for the stock since 2001. Chipmaker Nvidia soared 4% despite any news but did follow the rise of Broadcom, another chip market giant, which rose 6.5% after announcing a share repurchase plan.
- A bounce for Tesla. Electric vehicle maker Tesla bounced 3% after weeks of sliding. Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives slashed his price target earlier in the week.
- Strong earnings from Levi Strauss. Levi Strauss moved 13.5% higher in pre-market trading after releasing a stronger than expected quarterly earnings report.
- Health companies Humana and UnitedHealth both saw gains. The federal government revealed an estimated $25 billion increase in payments to Medicare Advantage plans for 2026, per Barrons.
_____________________________________________________________
"It's not just the tariffs but also the impact on growth from business leaders pulling back on investment and consumers becoming more cautious that is weighing on stock markets." - Schwab Chief Global Investment Strategist Jeffrey Kleintop
_____________________________________________________________
Most Active Stocks
- Apple (AAPL)
- Nvidia (NVDA)
- Broadcom (AVGO)
- Intel (INTC)
- Netflix (NFLX)
- Tesla (TSLA)
- Micron (MU)
- Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO)
- Newsmax (NMAX)
- WeRide (WRD)
Weekly Notables
Netflix Gets "Top Pick" by Morgan Stanley
Shares of streaming giant Netflix moved 3.5% higher after it was called a “Top Pick” by Morgan Stanley, replacing Walt Disney (DIS). The investment bank previously had designated media conglomerate Disney its top pick in the sector. But Netflix is a "more defensive" stock in the current market climate, analyst Benjamin Swinburne said in a client note.
Micron Jumps on Tariff Surcharge Plans
Micron jumped over 4% after announcing a plan to impose tariff surcharges on certain products according to Reuters. The U.S. memory chip maker has told U.S. customers it plans to impose a surcharge on some products from Wednesday to account for U.S. President Donald Trump's new tariffs, four sources familiar with the matter said. Micron's overseas manufacturing sites are largely based in Asia, including China, Taiwan, Japan, Malaysia and Singapore.
Earnings Spotlight: Wells FargoWells Fargo is slated to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 11, 2025, before market open. WFC’s fourth-quarter performance benefited from higher non-interest income. However, the decrease in net interest income (NII) was a spoilsport. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 revenues of $20.8 billion suggests a 0.3% year-over-year decline. In the past 30 days, the consensus estimate for earnings for the to-be-reported quarter has been revised downward to $1.23.