S&P 500 – 6,556.37 (-0.37%)

Dow Jones – 46,124.06 (-0.18%)

NASDAQ – 21,761.90 (-0.84%)

• Market Reaction: Stocks slipped as hopes for de-escalation in the Iran conflict faded, leaving investors uneasy while equities moved inversely to rising oil prices.
• Middle East Outlook: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the Iran war poses short-term risks but could ultimately increase the likelihood of lasting peace, noting a shift in regional attitudes and linking stability to sustained foreign investment.
• AI Hardware: Arm unveiled its first in-house AGI CPU, purpose-built for AI data centers, with Meta as its first customer, signaling a major move from licensing chip designs to manufacturing silicon and directly competing with former clients.
• Healthcare: CVS Health reached a proposed settlement with the FTC regarding insulin pricing, expected to curb rebate practices, improve transparency, and reduce regulatory risk for Caremark without materially impacting earnings.
• Iran Negotiations and Market Sentiment: Positive sentiment from “very good and productive” discussions with Iran faded Tuesday after Iranian state media denied any direct negotiations had taken place.
• Oil Prices: International benchmark Brent crude climbed back above $100 per barrel, driven by concerns over supply disruptions amid Middle East tensions.
• Bond Yields: The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.40%, its highest level since July, as investors weighed potential central bank responses to energy-driven inflation.
• Gold: Gold gave up early gains following reports that Turkey may use its reserves to support the lira, marking the 10th consecutive day of losses for the metal.
• Economic Indicators: Preliminary global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for March signaled weakened business activity and lower eurozone consumer confidence, reflecting early economic impacts of the conflict.
• Private Credit Funds: Apollo Global Management (APO) fell after limiting redemptions from a major non-traded private credit fund, while Ares Management (ARES) dropped following caps on withdrawals from a $10.7 billion private credit fund, highlighting rising investor caution.
• Corporate Movers: Broadcom (AVGO) edged lower due to supply chain constraints at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), and Estée Lauder (EL) dipped amid reports of a potential $40 billion merger with Puig.
• Volatility: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) stayed above 26, signaling persistent investor caution and ongoing market turbulence.
• Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin hovered near $70,000 as Bernstein called a market bottom and reaffirmed a $150,000 target for the end of 2026.
• Automotive: Tesla (TSLA) rebounded in Europe, with February EV registrations rising 11.8% year-over-year to 17,664 units.
• Dividends and M&A: Smithfield Foods (SFD) increased its quarterly dividend by 25% to 31.25 cents, while Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) rose amid news that Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) is considering a possible takeover.
• Fertilizer Prices: Nutrien (NTR) and CF Industries (CF) declined as fertilizer costs, tied closely to natural gas, surged 24% since the conflict began, raising concerns for U.S. farmers ahead of planting season.
• Federal Reserve Outlook: Market expectations shifted sharply, with the probability of a 2026 rate cut dropping from 95% to about 9%, futures implying roughly a 17% chance of at least one hike this year, and an 8% chance of a hike as soon as next month.

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“No one should have to ration their insulin or cancer medication because of cost.” – Joe Biden

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Notable Stocks

• Broadcom (AVGO)
• Meta Platforms (META)
• Estee Lauder (EL)
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)
• Tesla (TSLA)

Weekly Notables

Amazon’s Zoox to Launch Robotaxis in Austin and Miami

Amazon-owned Zoox is preparing to launch its robotaxi service to some members of the public in Austin and Miami later this year. The company’s toaster-shaped autonomous vehicles have no steering wheel or pedals and will initially operate in limited test areas. Trips will first be offered to Zoox employees and their families, before opening to the public via the Explorer program waitlist.

Circle Plunges Amid Clarity Act Fears

Circle (CRCL) shares fell 22%, marking the company’s worst day on record, as investors reacted to the latest version of the proposed Clarity Act. The legislation could ban stablecoin issuers from paying yield to users simply for holding the coins, a core incentive that encourages users to keep assets like USDC. The bill may still allow activity-based rewards, such as using the stablecoin for payments, trading, or lending.

Earnings Spotlight: Nike (NKE)

Nike (NKE) is expected to report earnings of $0.29 to $0.32 per share for the quarter ending March 31, 2026, representing a potential year-over-year decrease of over 40%. While the company recently beat expectations in late 2025, analysts maintain a cautious "Moderate Buy" outlook due to turnaround challenges, with fiscal 2026 revenue projected to decline 9%.

What's Ahead

March 25: February durable goods orders and expected earnings from Cintas (CTAS), Paychex (PAYX), and Chewy (CHWY).
March 26: No major earnings or data expected.
March 27: Fourth quarter GDP—third estimate and University of Michigan final March Consumer Sentiment.
March 30: No major earnings or data expected.
March 31: March Consumer Confidence and expected earnings from McCormick (MKC) and Nike (NKE).