Dow Jones - 43,840.91 (+1.39%)

Nasdaq - 18,847.28 (+1.63%)

S&P 500 - 5,954.50 (+1.59%)

• A volatile week of trading. While Friday saw some gains for each index, most indexes couldn't escape the wrath of the rest of the week's follies. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ fell for the second week in a row as tariff threats escalated again and technology stocks slipped. The NASDAQ finished down about 3.5% for the week while the S&P 500 retreated 1.0%. The Dow however rose 1.0%.    
• February was a bust. The stock market’s mostly positive momentum in January and early February switched course in the last two weeks. The NASDAQ took the biggest hit among the major U.S. indexes, retreating around 4.0% in February, while the S&P 500 and the Dow fell 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.   
• Yields dropped again this week. Yields of U.S. government bonds fell to their lowest levels in nearly three months. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note closed on Friday around 4.19%, down from 4.42% at the end of the previous week and a recent peak of 4.80% in mid-January. 
• Bitcoin plummeted. Bitcoin was trading around $84,500 on Friday. This is down about 12% for the week and around 18% for the full month. At the end of January, Bitcoin was trading above $102,000. On Monday South Dakota lawmakers rejected a proposal to consider a strategic Bitcoin reserve during the current legislative session.
• Strong growth in Q4 earnings. Companies in the S&P 500 posted an average earnings gain of 17.8% in the recently finished Q4 earnings season. This was compared to over the same quarter a year earlier, according to FactSet data. This also marked the strongest growth since the fourth quarter of 2021 and was up sharply from the 11.8% growth rate that analysts had expected heading into earnings season. Financials posted a 56.0% earnings gain, the highest among all 11 sectors.
• Economy concerns lingered. Earlier in the week a gauge of consumer confidence recorded its biggest monthly decline in three and a half years. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index came in at a reading of 98.3 last Tuesday, down from January's revised 105.0 figure and well below economists’ expectations. Survey participants cited fresh concerns about inflation risks. 
• Inflation is still above target. Inflation came in well above the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 2.0% long-term target, based on this past Friday’s reading from the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index. PCE inflation rose at an annual rate of 2.5% in January, in line with economists’ expectations and slightly below the 2.6% figure recorded the previous month. 
• Potential orange flags. This week's economic data provided some possible orange flags around the U.S. economy, which included a downwardly revised "nowcast" from the Atlanta Federal Reserve. This suggests that the U.S. economy will contract this quarter for the first time in several years.
• Tesla had its second worst month ever. The EV maker's shares tumbled nearly 30% in February as the negative headlines piled up.
• AI-darling Nvidia reported a solid "beat and raise" quarter. Despite a solid earnings report after the bell on Wednesday, shares of Nvidia still slipped.
• PCE Price Index: Headline month-over-month (MoM) increased 0.3% (in line with estimates) and year-over-year (YoY) slowed to a +2.5% annual rate, which is the lowest YoY increase since early 2021. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% MoM and +2.6% YoY (both in line with estimates).
• Consumer Confidence: Dropped to 98.3 in February from 105.3 in the prior month and below the 102.5 economists had expected. This represents the largest monthly drop since August 2021. Within the report, the Expectations Index dropped 9.3 points to 72.9, representing the first time that it has fallen below the "recessionary" threshold of 80 since June 2024.
• Personal Spending: Dropped 0.2%, versus expectations for no change, which is the largest decline since February 2021.
• Personal Income: +0.9% which is above the +0.4% expected and +0.4% in the prior month.
• Pending Home Sales: Dropped 4.6% last month to an all-time low (since the NAR began tracking this data back in January 2001) of 70.6.
• Q4 GDP – Second Estimate: 2.3% vs. 2.3% initial reading.
• Durable Orders: Rose 3.1% in January to $286B, which was above the +2.0% expected. However, excluding transportation Durable Orders were essentially unchanged.
• Initial Jobless Claims: Rose to 242K from an (upwardly revised) 220K in the prior week, and above the 225K expected. Continuing Claims decreased 5K to 1.862M from last week.
• The Atlanta Fed's GDP "nowcast" for Q1 GDP was revised to -1.5% today from +2.3% last week.
• The job report next week could be critical. The next monthly labor market report is due out on Friday and will show whether January’s slowdown in jobs growth extended into February. In January, the economy generated 143,000 new jobs, down from 307,000 in December and 261,000 in November. January’s report had also showed the unemployment rate slipped from 4.1% to 4.0%.

• Nvidia (NVIDA)
• Lloyds Banking (LYG)
• Ford Motor Co. (F)
• Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
• Lucid Group (LCID)

Biggest Gainers

• Perrigo Company (PRGO) +20.18%
• SoundHound AI (SOUN) +17.48%
• Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) +16.48%
• Elastic N.V. (ESTC) +14.89%
• NextDecade Corp. (NEXT) +13.22%

Biggest Losers

• DoubleVerify Holdings (DV) – 36.03%
• DLocal Limited (DLO) – 30.51%
• Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) – 25.53%
• Duolingo (DUOL) –16.95%
• NetApp (NTAP) -15.57%

Weekly Notables

SoftBank Plans to Borrow $16 Billion for AI Investing

SoftBank Group CEO Masayoshi Son plans to borrow $16 billion to invest in AI according to a news report from the Information, citing sources familiar with the matter. The company might borrow another $8 billion in early 2026, the report added.

Intel Delays Ohio Chip Plant Opening

Chipmaker Intel is delaying the opening of its Ohio chip manufacturing facility. The company said it won’t complete construction on the first plant until 2030, starting operations that year or the next. Intel lost 60% of its value last year as it fell further behind the artificial intelligence race.

The Week Ahead

• Potential market moving catalysts this week: On Monday investors can await the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index as well as Construction spending from the U.S. Census Bureau. No major reports are expected on Tuesday. Wednesday will kick important data off again with the ADP National Employment report from the ADP as well as the Institute for Supply Management’s nonmanufacturing index and Factory orders from the U.S. Census Bureau. Thursday we’ll see Trade Balance from the U.S. Census Bureau, Productivity and labor costs from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wholesale inventories from the U.S. Census Bureau. Weekly unemployment claims will also be out from the Department of Labor. The week will wrap up with the Jobs and unemployment data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday as well as Consumer credit data from the U.S. Federal Reserve. 
• Earnings on deck this week: Monday (3/3): California Resources Corp. (CRC), Surgery Partners Inc. (SGRY), Okta Inc. (OKTA), GitLab Inc. (GTLB), Nuscale Power Corp. (SMR) Tuesday (3/4): Sea Ltd. (SE), AutoZone Inc. (AZO), Target Corp. (TGT), Best Buy Inc. (BBY), On Holding AG (ONON), Flutter Entertainment PLC (FLUT), Ross Stores Inc. (ROST), Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. (CRDO), Box Inc. (BOX) Wednesday (3/5): Brown-Forman Corp. (BF/B), Thor Industries Inc. (THO), Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF), Foot Locker Inc. (FL), Marvell Technology Group Inc. (MRVL), Veeva Systems Inc. (VEEV), Zscaler Inc. (ZS), MongoDB Inc. (MDB) Thursday (3/6): Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ), Burlington Stores Inc. (BURL), BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings Inc. (BJ), Campbell's Co. (CPB), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST), Samsara Inc. (IOT), Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE), Guidewire Software Inc. (GWRE) Friday (3/7): Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (AQN), Genesco Inc. (GCO).