There's some big stuff to watch in this new trading week!
- Stocks flourish as Feds cut interest rates. While the major indexes closed mix on Friday, it was an overall pleasant trading week. On Monday the Dow soared past a record high that it had set in mid-July while the S&P 500 did the same on Thursday. The Feds made their first interest-rate cut since March 2020. Each of the major indexes gained around 1.5% for the week. The NASDAQ came almost 4% shy of its historic peak.
- The big Fed meeting didn't disappoint. On Wednesday the Federal Reserve cut its key lending rate, and fortunately decided for a reduction of 50 basis points―or 0.50%—rather than a more incremental 25-point cut that some expected. The move was backed by 11 of 12 Fed voting members and left the Fed funds range at 4.75% to 5.00%. Now investors look forward to more rate cuts at Fed meetings in early November and mid-December.
- Mortgage rates dropped. Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest since early February 2023 after the Fed’s jumbo interest rate cut. The standard, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.09% in the week ended September 19, Freddie Mac said Thursday. This is down from last week’s 6.20% and substantially below a two-decade peak of 7.79% seen last fall. It’s the lowest level since early February 2023.
- Impact on the yield. The yield of the 10-year Treasury was 3.73% at Friday's close after the rate cut—higher for the week, but down sharply from a year-to-date peak of 4.70% in late April.
- Monthly U.S. retail sales moved higher. Retail sales in the U.S surpassed the expectations of most economists, who had predicted a slight downturn. Sales rose 0.1% in August, and the Commerce Department also revised July’s gain to 1.1%, up from an initially estimated figure of 1.0%.
- A bond market indicator had a telling message. The bond market indicator that’s often cited as a gauge of the prospects for a recession is no longer indicating a high potential for an economic downturn. Since mid-2022, the yield of the 2-year U.S. Treasury note had been higher than that of the longer duration 10-year Treasury. This is an uncommon occurrence known as a yield curve inversion. On September 4, the 2-year yield crossed back below the 10-year yield, and it has since stayed there, with Friday’s closing 2-year yield at 3.58% and the 10-year yield at 3.73%.
- Intel stock shined. Intel started the week with a critical board meeting and ended it with reports that Qualcomm approached the company about a potential acquisition. Shares rose 11% for the week, their best performance since November, but are still down 56% this year.
- Gold climbed to a new peak. Spot gold price hit a new peak of $2,625 per ounce while the MCX gold rate ended at the ₹74,014 mark, ₹717 away from the all-time high of ₹74,731 per 10 gm.
- Oil ended the week higher. Oil prices settled lower on Friday but recorded a second straight week of gains. Brent futures settled down 39 cents, or 0.52%, at $74.49 a barrel. U.S. WTI crude futures settled down 3 cents, or 0.4%, to $71.92.
- New Apple products launched Friday. On Friday, Apple greeted customers at its stores around the world for the debuts of the iPhone 16, Apple Watch Series 10 and AirPods 4. The new phones are expected to usher in the iPhone makers entrance into artificial intelligence.
- Tesla (TSLA)
- Kinross Gold (KGC)
- Pfizer (PFE)
- GameStop Corp. (GME)
- Newell Brands (NWL)
Biggest Gainers
- Constellation Energy Corp. (CEG) +22.29%
- Vistra Corp. (VST) +16.60%
- GameStop Corp. (GME) +11.90%
- CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) +8.10%
- Astera Labs (ALAB) +7.17%
Biggest Losers
- FedEx Corp. (FDX) -15.23%
- Rivian Automotive (RIVN) -10.95%
- XP Inc. (XP) - 7.24%
- StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) -8.50%
- Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY) -7.27%
Weekly Notables
Elon Musk Complies with Brazil Court Orders.
On the prospect of social network site X being banned in Latin America's largest economy, Elon Musk backed down and decided to comply with court orders in Brazil. X appointed a legal representative in the country on Friday, seeking to obey a deadline imposed by the Supreme Court and end the ban on the social-media platform in the country that began Aug. 30, according to a judicial filing.
GM to Begin Laying Off Many Workers.
General Motors will lay off 1,695 workers at its Fairfax Assembly plant in Kansas, the company said in a Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification notice last week. A GM spokesperson said the first of two rounds will begin on Nov. 18, affecting 686 full-time workers temporarily and terminating 250 temporary employees. Under the second phase, to begin on Jan. 12 of next year, 759 full-time workers will be temporarily laid off, the spokesperson confirmed.
The Week Ahead- Potential market moving catalysts this week: On Wednesday new home sales will be released by the U.S. Census Bureau. Then on Thursday pending home sales will be released from the National Association of Realtors, durable goods from the U.S. Census Bureau and weekly unemployment claims from the U.S. Department of Labor. The PCE inflation monthly report is scheduled to be released on Friday and will show whether the recent easing of inflationary pressures extended into August. The most recent report covering July showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose at an annual rate of 2.6%, excluding energy and food prices. The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment will also be released on Friday.
- Earnings on deck this week include: Auto Zone, Costco, BlackBerry, Accenture, Jefferies, H.B. Fuller, Worthington Steel, Micron Technology, Cintas, KB Home, Stitch Fix, and Red Cat.
Earnings Spotlight: Micron Technology, Inc.
Micron is expected to post earnings of $1.10 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +202.8%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -4.4%. For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $1.20 points to a change of +127% from the prior year. The Street expects the company to report net income of $975.41 million for the quarter, compared to a loss of $1.43 billion a year earlier. Revenue is projected to nearly double to $7.66 billion, according to estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. The company will report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings after the bell Wednesday.