S&P 500 – 6,512.61 (+0.27%)

Dow Jones – 45,711.34 (+0.43%)

NASDAQ – 21,879.49 (+0.37%)

• Market: U.S. stocks closed at record highs amid job concerns and looming inflation reports.
• Bond Yields Steady: Bond yields were little changed, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.05%, near its lows for the year, supporting fixed-income returns, as the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is up about 6.4% so far in 2025.
• Job Outlook Turns Pessimistic: A New York Fed survey showed the perceived probability of losing one’s job rose to 14.5%. “Consumers continue to have an increasingly sour outlook when it comes to labor,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Schwab.
• Volatility Remains Low: Volatility remains subdued, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) trading below 16, well under its long-term average of 20, though longer-dated contracts are above 21, signaling expectations for higher volatility early next year.
• Oil Prices Rise: Oil prices rose nearly 1% Tuesday amid Middle East tensions after Israel reported a strike in Qatar, with West Texas Intermediate near $62.80 per barrel and Brent trading up nearly 1% at $66.30. The Energy Sector (XLE) led S&P 500 (^GSPC) gains, climbing about 1.7%.
• Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Traders continue to price in a 90% chance of a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate cut at the September meeting, with a 10% chance of a 50 basis point cut following Tuesday’s BLS data.
• Gold Hits Historic High: Gold surged past $3,650 for the first time in history, fueled by anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month.
• Nvidia Price Target Cut: Citigroup lowered its price target on Nvidia (NVDA), citing potential pressure from Broadcom’s (AVGO) custom AI chips, called "XPUs," which could reduce Nvidia’s 2026 GPU sales by about 4%, or $12 billion. Nvidia said late Monday that it has secured H20 licenses for major customers in China, which could generate revenue, though no sales from China are included in its current-quarter guidance.
• Oracle Eyes Cloud Growth: Oracle (ORCL) gained after climbing nearly 2.5% Monday ahead of its earnings release, as investors focus on cloud performance and its data center partnership with OpenAI. Analysts expect revenue of roughly $15 billion, up 12.8% from a year ago, with earnings per share projected at $1.48.
• Broadcom Rallies: Broadcom (AVGO) rose, extending last week’s rally on strong demand for its custom AI chips.
• Teck Resources Soars on Merger: Teck Resources (TECK) surged after agreeing to merge with Anglo American PLC, a deal expected to create one of the world’s largest copper producers.
• Dell Faces Leadership Change: Dell Technologies (DELL) slipped following the surprise announcement that CFO Yvonne McGill will step down, raising questions about leadership stability ahead of the company’s analyst meeting.
• AppLovin Joins S&P 500: AppLovin (APP) jumped after being added to the S&P 500 index, a move that typically spurs buying from index-tracking funds.
• UnitedHealth Confirms Guidance: UnitedHealth Group (UNH) rose after reaffirming its full-year earnings outlook. Shares are now up 37% from early August lows.
• Fox Shares Fall Amid Succession Resolution: Fox (FOX) dropped after reports that the Murdoch family resolved its succession battle and created a new trust to receive proceeds from the sale of nearly 17 million Class B shares.
• Apple Reveals New Phone: Apple (AAPL) revealed the iPhone Air. The $999 iPhone Air brings the biggest changes to the iPhone since the company unveiled its iPhone X in 2017, when Apple implemented its edge-to-edge screen design.
• CoreWeave Launches Venture Arm: CoreWeave (CRWV) advanced after the Wall Street Journal reported the AI cloud company launched a venture arm to invest in startups.
• Casey’s General Stores Misses Pre-market Boost: Casey’s General Stores (CASY) fell despite topping earnings expectations, posting a 4.3% rise in same-store sales and reaffirming guidance.
• Nebius Signs $17B AI Deal: Nebius (NBIS), an Amsterdam-based tech company, soared 55% after signing a $17 billion AI infrastructure deal with Microsoft (MSFT).
• Tourmaline Bio Acquisition: Tourmaline Bio (TRML) surged more than 50% after Novartis (NVS, NOVN.SW) announced it would acquire the company for $1.4 billion, paying $48 per share, with the transaction expected to close in the fourth quarter.
• What to Watch: Investors will get a fresh look at inflation with August’s producer and consumer price indexes due Wednesday and Thursday. Economists expect headline PPI to remain at 3.3% year over year, while headline CPI is projected to rise slightly to 2.9% from 2.7%. Tariff-related price pressures are likely to build later in the year, but August data may show only a limited impact as many firms continue absorbing costs. This will be the final inflation report ahead of the Fed’s September 17 meeting, where a rate cut is widely expected despite inflation still exceeding the 2% target.

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 “I think the economy is weakening,” JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC on the heels of the report. “Whether it’s on the way to recession or just weakening, I don’t know.”

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Notable Stocks

• Nvidia (NVDA)
• Intel (INTC)
• Apple (AAPL)
• Nebius (NBIS)
• Tourmaline Bio (TRML)

Weekly Notables

Intel Overhauls Leadership; Products Chief Michelle Johnston Holthaus to Depart

Intel on Monday announced a series of executive changes, including the exit of products chief Michelle Johnston Holthaus, as CEO Lip-Bu Tan intensifies efforts to revamp the struggling U.S. chipmaker. Holthaus, who has spent more than 30 years at Intel and held multiple senior leadership positions—including interim co-CEO following the departure of former CEO Pat Gelsinger last year—will remain with the company in a strategic advisory capacity for the coming months.

Robinhood Soars to a Record High on News of S&P 500 Inclusion

Robinhood (HOOD) shares jumped to a new record on Monday after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the brokerage platform will join the S&P 500 (^GSPC) on September 22. AppLovin (APP) and Emcor (EME) will also be added, replacing MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX), Caesars Entertainment (CZR) and Enphase Energy (ENPH).

Earnings Spotlight: Chewy (CHWY)

E-commerce pet food and supplies retailer Chewy (NYSE: CHWY) will be reporting results before the bell today. Chewy beat analysts’ revenue expectations by 1.1% last quarter, reporting revenues of $3.12 billion, up 8.3% year on year. It was a satisfactory quarter for the company, with a narrow beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates. This quarter, analysts are expecting Chewy’s revenue to grow 7.7% year on year to $3.08 billion, improving from the 2.6% increase it recorded in the same quarter last year. Adjusted earnings are expected to come in at $0.33 per share.