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Market outlook = Foggy

3 months ago
Week Ending June 20th, 2024 
Friday's Market Moves

Dow Jones - 42,206.82 (+0.083%) 

Nasdaq - 19,447.41 (-0.51%)

S&P 500 - 5,976.84 (-0.22%) 

Weekly Recap
  • Little change for the week. While U.S. stock indexes ended in the red on Friday, they were little changed for the overall week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose just above the flatline. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5%. Stocks teetered as President Trump delayed a decision on U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict by two weeks.
  • The U.S. dollar weakened. 
  • WTI crude oil prices climbed. Amid escalating air strikes between Israel and Iran, WTI and Brent were up nearly 3% for the week.
  • An economic indicator. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), designed to signal upcoming shifts in the business cycle and near-term economic trends, dipped slightly by 0.1% in May to 99.0, missing expectations for no change.
  • Bond yields declined. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.38%, continuing its retreat from the May high near 4.60%. 
  • Two rate cuts ahead. Earlier in the week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released an updated “dot plot,” reaffirming expectations for two rate cuts in 2025. However, projections for next year were trimmed to just one rate cut, down from two in the March forecast. Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller on Friday raised the prospect of interest rate cuts as early as July. “Right now it’s just a forecast in a very foggy time,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, following the central bank’s decision to slightly lower its short-term growth outlook while raising its inflation expectations. 
  • Gold declined 0.3% on Friday. The metal is still up nearly 30% this year.
  • Bitcoin slipped under $104,000. Earlier in the week the Senate passed a bill called the GENIUS Act, that would establish a federal framework for dollar-backed cryptocurrencies known as stablecoins.
  • Shares of Circle jumped 15% on Friday. The issuer of the world’s second-largest stablecoin is up more than 77% through the week. In total, the stock is up more than seven times its initial June 5 IPO price.
  • Google got bad news. An adviser to Europe's highest court sided with EU regulators in Google's fight against a record 4.34 billion euro ($4.98 billion) fine. Turkey has also launched an anti-trust investigation into Google. 
  • Semiconductor stocks fell. A Wall Street Journal report that a senior U.S. official informed major global chipmakers of plans to revoke waivers allowing them to use American technology in China.
  • Darden Restaurants went higher. The stock gained 2.7% in pre-market trading after narrowly topping Wall Street's earnings and revenue expectations and announcing a dividend increase.
  • Accenture slipped 5%. Despite beating consensus estimates for earnings and revenue and raising its guidance shares headed lower. Investor sentiment appeared weighed down by concerns over underlying business trends.
  • CarMax surged. A strong demand for used vehicles drove earnings and revenue above analyst forecasts.
  • Tesla went higher. Investors were eyeing the electric vehicle maker's tentative plan to launch robotaxis in Austin on Sunday.
  • Coinbase climbed 3%. The surge followed Senate approval of a bill to regulate stablecoins. A House vote is still needed, with key differences between versions yet to be resolved, though Reuters reports a vote could come by late summer.
  • Kroger shares were mostly flat on earnings. The company raised its full-year sales forecast, maintained its profit guidance, and reported mixed results for the latest quarter.
  • Wolfspeed fell. Reports emerged on Thursday that the company would be taken over by creditors including Apollo Global Management.
  • GMS shares jumped. The stock gained over 20% as a Wall Street Journal reported that Home Depot (HD) has made an offer to acquire the building-products distributor, according to sources familiar with the situation. The report did not disclose a proposed purchase price.
  • IBM edged down. The move came after three consecutive sessions of record closes. Wednesday’s rally was fueled by a Bank of America (BAC) price target hike, driven by optimism over AI and quantum computing growth potential.
  • Big earnings ahead. Several major companies are set to report earnings in the week ahead, including Micron Technology (MU), FedEx (FDX), Nike (NKE), and Carnival (CCL).
  • Novo Nordisk (NVO) will host its investor day conference today.
Most Active Stocks
  • Tesla (TSLA)
  • Nvidia (NVDA)
  • Oracle (ORCL)
  • Microsoft (MSFT)
  • Amazon (AMZN)

Biggest Gainers

  • GMS Inc. (GMS) - 23.77%
  • Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) - 13.05%
  • John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (WLYB) - 12.82%
  • Zeta Global Holdings Corp. (ZETA) - 12.63%
  • Under Armour, Inc. (UA) - 12.46%

Biggest Losers

  • Lyell Immunopharma, Inc. (LYEL) - 9.29%
  • Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - 8.65%
  • Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) - 8.15%
  • KBR, Inc. (KBR) - 7.29%
  • Accenture plc (CAN) - 6.86%

Weekly Notables

Telegram CEO Reveals How He Will Share His Fortune with 100 Kids

Telegram CEO and billionaire Pavel Durov revealed on Thursday that he plans to treat all of his more than 100 children the same when it comes to inheritance, regardless of their origins. “I want to specify that I make no difference between my children: there are those who were conceived naturally and those who come from my sperm donations. They are all my children and will all have the same rights! I don’t want them to tear each other apart after my death,” Durov told French magazine Le Point.

United States Strikes 3 Nuclear Sites in Iran

President Donald Trump announced Saturday that the U.S. military carried out strikes on three sites in Iran, marking a direct entry into Israel’s campaign to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program. The move represents a high-stakes effort to weaken a long-standing adversary, as Tehran threatens retaliation that could escalate into a broader regional conflict.

Iran has not yet officially confirmed that any strikes have taken place.

 The Week Ahead

  • Potential market moving catalysts this week: Monday (6/23): Existing Home Sales. Tuesday (6/24): Consumer Confidence, Current Account Balance, FHFA Housing Price Index, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Wednesday (6/25): EIA Crude Oil Inventories, MBA Mortgage Applications Index, New Home Sales. Thursday (6/26): Advanced International Trade in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories, Advanced Wholesale Inventories, Continuing Claims, Durable Goods, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, GDP – 3rd Estimate, Initial Claims, Pending Home Sales. Friday (6/27): PCE Prices, Personal Income, Personal Spending, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final.
  • Earnings on deck this week: Monday (6/23): FactSet Research Systems Inc. (FDS), Commercial Metals Co. (CMC), KB Home (KBH). Tuesday (6/24): Carnival Corp. (CCL), TD Synnex Corp. (SNX), FedEx Corp. (FDX), AeroVironment Inc. (AVAV), Worthington Enterprises Inc. (WOR), BlackBerry Ltd. (BB). Wednesday (6/25): Paychex Inc. (APYX), General Mills Inc. (GIS), NovaGold Resources Inc. (NG), Winnebago Industries Inc. (WGO), Micron Technology Inc. (MU), Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF), Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI), H.B> Fuller Company (FUL). Thursday (6/26): McCormick & Company Inc. (MKC), Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (WBA), Acuity Inc. (AYI), Lindsay Corp. (LNN), Nike Inc. (NKE), National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ), Concentrix Corp. (CNXC). Friday (6/27): Apogee Enterprises Inc. (APOG), GreenPower Motor Company Inc. (GP).

 

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