S&P 500 – 6,643.70 (+0.59%)

Dow Jones – 46,247.29 (+0.65%)

NASDAQ – 22,484.07 (+0.44%)

• U.S. Stocks Rebound After Three-Day Slide: Equity markets saw a modest bounce Friday, offering relief following three consecutive days of losses.
• PCE Data Signals Inflation in Line with Expectations: Investors reacted positively to August’s Personal Consumption Expenditures report. The core PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.9% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month, confirming that inflation remains elevated but within forecasts.
• Silver Nears 2011 Peak on Safe-Haven Demand: Silver climbed nearly 4% to $46.88 per troy ounce, approaching its 2011 high. Year-to-date, the metal has surged more than 60%, outpacing gold’s 46% rise amid Fed easing and a softer U.S. dollar.
• Labor Market Shows Signs of Cooling: The unemployment rate remains low at 4.3%, with 7.2 million job openings slightly below the 7.4 million unemployed, indicating the labor market is cooling but still robust.
• Income and Spending Exceed Expectations: Personal income rose 0.4% month-over-month in August, above forecasts of 0.3%, while personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.6%, surpassing expectations of 0.45%.
• Rate-Cut Odds Climb: Following the PCE report, the CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a Fed rate cut next month just below 88%, up from 85.5% the previous day. Markets price in roughly a 61% chance of two cuts by year-end.
• Foreign Investment in U.S. Equities Near Record Highs: Foreign investors now hold about 30% of their U.S. assets in equities, above the long-term average and approaching record levels.
• Treasury Yields Rise: U.S. Treasury yields climbed, with the 10-year note hitting 4.17%, up from early September lows of 4.0%.
• Dollar Weakens Against Major Currencies: The U.S. dollar lost ground this week as investors reassessed global currency trends.
• Gold Holds Above Key Level but Faces Resistance: Gold remains above $3,750 an ounce but continues to struggle against significant resistance levels.
• Oil Prices Jump on Ukrainian Drone Attacks: Brent crude rose to $70.13 per barrel (+1.02%), and WTI climbed to $65.72 (+1.14%) after drone strikes in Ukraine disrupted Russian fuel exports.
• Bitcoin Drops to Three-Week Low: Bitcoin fell below $109,000, with crypto-linked stocks like MicroStrategy (-7%) and Coinbase (-4.7%) also retreating amid higher-than-expected U.S. GDP and rising Treasury yields.
• Electronic Arts Surges on Take-Private Reports: EA shares jumped nearly 15% after news of a potential $50 billion leveraged buyout involving Silver Lake and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund.
• Boeing Gains on FAA Clearance and New Orders: Boeing advanced as the FAA cleared final safety inspections on 737 Max jets, supported by new orders from Turkish Airlines and Norwegian Air Shuttle. The stock is up 25% year-to-date.
• Oracle Slides on AI and TikTok Concerns: Oracle extended its losses due to profit-taking and worries over AI investments and a potential TikTok stake.
• Intel Climbs on Apple Stake Talks: Intel added to gains after Bloomberg reported that Apple is considering an equity stake in the chipmaker.
• CarMax Falls After Earnings Miss: CarMax shares tumbled following a sharp miss on both revenue and earnings.
• Pharmaceutical Stocks Rise on Tariff Announcement: Shares of Eli Lilly, Merck, and Pfizer gained after President Trump announced 100% tariffs on imported drugs.
• Paccar Gains on Truck Tariffs: Paccar jumped after the government imposed a 25% tariff on heavy trucks made outside the U.S.; about 90% of its trucks are produced domestically.
• Trump Posts Cartoon Firing Fed Chair Powell: President Trump shared an AI-generated cartoon on Truth Social depicting him firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, continuing their public feud.
• Musk’s Grok AI Secures 42-Cent Federal Deal: Elon Musk’s xAI Grok AI won an 18-month federal contract at a symbolic price of 42 cents per agency, signaling improved relations with Trump.
• Costco Beats Earnings Amid Tariffs: Costco topped expectations, with strong value-focused sales helping the retailer navigate tariffs and competition.
• Crypto Market Loses $300 Billion in Sharp Selloff: The cryptocurrency market shed roughly $300 billion this week as leveraged positions unwound, pushing investor sentiment to its weakest point since early summer.

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“The economy’s very vulnerable if the stock market does turn south, for whatever reason.” - Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics

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Notable Stocks

• Nvidia (NVDA)
• Oracle (ORCL)
• Boeing (BA)
• Electronic Arts (EA)
• Intel (INTC)

Weekly Notables

Electronic Arts Jumps 15% on Report of $50 Billion Take-Private Deal

Electronic Arts (EA) shares surged 15% Friday after the Wall Street Journal reported the video game giant is close to a roughly $50 billion deal to go private — a transaction that would eclipse TXU Energy’s 2007 buyout as the largest leveraged buyout in U.S. history. According to the report, investors including Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, Silver Lake and Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners could unveil the agreement as soon as next week. PIF has been expanding aggressively in gaming, acquiring stakes in companies behind Pokémon Go and Monopoly Go.

Costco Tops Earnings Estimates as Value Focus Drives Sales Despite Tariff Headwinds

Costco (COST) delivered fourth-quarter results Thursday that modestly exceeded Wall Street’s expectations, underscoring the warehouse retailer’s ability to grow even as consumers face higher costs and the company navigates new tariff pressures and intensifying competition from rivals like Walmart’s Sam’s Club. Revenue came in at $86.16 billion versus the $86.03 billion consensus estimate, while adjusted earnings per share of $5.87 edged past the $5.82 forecast. Same-store sales rose 6.4%, ahead of the 6.2% estimate. U.S. comps increased 6%, just shy of the 6.1% projection, but Canada led the pack with 8.3% growth compared with the expected 6.8%. Other international markets posted 7.2% growth, in line with forecasts. For comparison, Sam’s Club most recently reported 5.9% same-store sales growth.

Earnings Spotlight

Nike (NKE) earnings for 2026 are scheduled after the market closes on Tuesday, Sep. 30. Ahead of the event, analysts expect NKE to report a profit of $0.28 per share on a diluted basis, down 60% from $0.70 per share in the year-ago quarter. The company has consistently surpassed Wall Street’s EPS estimates in its last four quarterly reports.

What's Ahead

Economic:

• Monday (Sep. 29): Pending Home Sales
• Tuesday (Sep. 30): Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence, FHFA Housing Price Index, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
• Wednesday (Oct. 01): ADP Employment Change, Construction Spending, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, ISM Manufacturing Index, MBA Mortgage Applications Index
• Thursday (Oct. 02): Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Factory Orders, Initial Claims
• Friday (Oct. 03): Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Workweek, Average Hourly Earnings, Ism Services, Unemployment Rate

Earnings:

• Monday (Sep. 29): Carnival Corp. (CCL), Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF), IDT Corp. (IDT), Progress Software Corp. (PRGS), Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN)
• Tuesday (Sep. 30): Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. (LW), Nike Inc. (NKE), Paychex Inc. (PAYX), United Natural Foods Inc. (UNFI)
• Wednesday (Oct. 01): Acuity Inc. (AYI), Cal-Maine Foods Inc. (CALM), Conagra Brands Inc. (CAG), Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI), RPM International Inc. (RPM)
• Thursday (Oct. 02): AngioDynamics Inc. (ANGO), Trilogy Metals (TMQ)
• Friday (Oct. 03): no reports