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Economic data and the Feds are spooking traders again.

3 weeks ago
Week Ending September 26th, 2025 
Tuesday's Market Moves

S&P 500 – 6,656.92 (-0.55%)

Dow Jones – 46,292.78 (-0.19%)

NASDAQ – 22,573.47 (-0.95%)

Weekly Recap
  • Stock Movement: U.S. stocks pulled back from records on Tuesday as trades in Nvidia fizzled.
  • Healthcare & Policy: Trump Administration’s Tylenol Warning Sparks Medical Backlash. White House advises limiting acetaminophen use during pregnancy, citing potential links to autism and ADHD. Medical experts emphasize that studies show correlation, not causation, warning the guidance may unnecessarily alarm expectant mothers. Major organizations, including the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, maintain that Tylenol remains the safest over-the-counter pain reliever in pregnancy.
  • CVS Health’s Omnicare Files for Chapter 11 Following $949 Million Judgment: Omnicare, CVS Health’s long-term care pharmacy unit, seeks bankruptcy protection due to a civil judgment over improper prescription dispensing.
  • Nvidia Soars on $100B OpenAI Deal and Massive AI Compute Plan: Nvidia will provide OpenAI at least 10 gigawatts of compute power through its Vera Rubin platform starting in 2026.
  • Oracle Leads U.S. TikTok Venture Amid CEO Transition: Oracle and Silver Lake gain majority control of TikTok’s U.S. operations; ByteDance retains <20% stake. Oracle will secure U.S. user data and oversee algorithm retraining to meet national security requirements. CEO Safra Catz is also stepping down as CEO and becomes executive vice chair; Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia named co-CEOs.
  • Gold Hits Record Above $3,800 as Analysts Predict Further Upside: Rally driven by softer U.S. dollar, expectations of additional Federal Reserve easing, and strong investor demand. Goldman Sachs forecasts $4,000 and UBS projects $3,900 by mid-2026.
  • OECD Revises 2025 Global GDP Forecast Upward: Global growth projected at 3.2% (up from 2.9%), U.S. growth at 1.8% (up from 1.6%).
  • Government Shutdown Risk Increases: Federal funding set to expire Sept. 30; House stopgap measure fails in Senate. President Trump scheduled to meet Democratic leaders to seek resolution.
  • Oil & Energy Market Movements: Oil prices rise ~2% after OECD upgrades global growth forecast.
  • Boeing (BA) Deal: The airline is reportedly close to a China trade deal involving up to 500 aircraft.
  • Nuclear Energy: Constellation Energy (CEG) and Vistra (VST) rally after positive analyst calls; Constellation target $401, Vistra $256.
  • U.S. Manufacturing & Services Growth Slows Slightly: September Flash PMIs: Manufacturing 52 (vs. 52.2 expected), Services 53.9 (vs. 54 forecast). Readings above 50 still indicate expansion but show moderation in momentum.
  • Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC) & Cryptocurrencies tick higher; historically seasonally weak period, but October often shows stronger performance.
  • Notable Stock & Crypto Moves:
    • Apple (AAPL) moves toward all-time highs after Wedbush raises price target to $310, driven by strong iPhone 17 demand.
    • Tesla (TSLA) rises on Baird upgrade and Piper Sandler price-target increase; focus on self-driving ambitions.
    • Plug Power (PLUG) continued a five-day rally, extending gains.
    • Better Home & Finance (BETR) surges after activist investor Eric Jackson praises company as “Shopify of mortgages.”
    • ASML (ASML) shares jump after Morgan Stanley upgrade; new price target €950 ($1,120).
    • Metsera (MTSR) surges on Pfizer’s $7.3B acquisition for weight-loss drug.
    • Micron (MU) reported fiscal fourth quarter earnings results after the bell Tuesday that surpassed Wall Street's expectations.

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"The US economy is showing resilience in the midst of substantial changes in trade and immigration policies, as well as in fiscal, regulatory and geopolitical arenas. These policies are still emerging, and their longer-term implications will take some time to be seen."

 – Fed Chair Jerome Powell

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Notable Stocks

  • NVIDIA (NVDA)
  • Oracle (ORCL)
  • Boeing (BA)
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Kenvue (KVUE)

Weekly Notables

Nvidia Hits Record High on $100 Billion OpenAI Deal and Massive AI Compute Plan

Nvidia (NVDA) shares climbed to a record high on Monday after the chipmaker announced a landmark partnership with OpenAI that will see it invest up to $100 billion to supply unprecedented computing power for the ChatGPT maker’s next wave of artificial-intelligence models.

Under the agreement, OpenAI will gain access to at least 10 gigawatts of compute capacity from Nvidia’s newest AI systems, beginning in 2026 on the company’s forthcoming Vera Rubin platform. Analysts estimate that level of capacity could equate to roughly 4–5 million Nvidia GPUs—five times the size of Meta’s planned Louisiana AI data center—making it one of the most ambitious infrastructure projects in tech.

Oracle Hits Spotlight with TikTok Deal and CEO Shake-Up

Oracle (ORCL) stock jumped on Monday, though reversed course on Tuesday, after two major announcements: the White House formally named the software giant a lead investor in a new U.S.-controlled venture for TikTok’s American operations, and the company unveiled a sweeping leadership transition. Under the agreement, Oracle and Silver Lake will spearhead a joint venture that takes majority ownership and governance of TikTok’s U.S. business, while ByteDance keeps a minority stake of less than 20%. Oracle will act as security provider for U.S. user data and oversee retraining of TikTok’s recommendation algorithm, which U.S. officials can inspect. President Trump is expected to sign an executive order later this week declaring the deal satisfies national-security requirements.

Earnings Spotlight

Costco (COST): Analysts are optimistic about Costco's upcoming earnings. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues stands at $86.23 billion, representing an 8.2% increase from the prior-year reported figure. On the earnings front, the consensus estimate has improved by three cents to $5.82 per share over the past seven days, implying a 13% year-over-year increase. Costco has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.4%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Issaquah, WA-based company beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 0.7%.

What's Ahead

In focus remains Friday's report on US personal consumption expenditures, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. Markets expect two further interest rate cuts by the Fed by the end of the year as officials aim to shore up the stuttering labor market despite elevated inflation.

September 24: August new home sales and expected earnings from KB Home (KBH) and Worthington Steel (WS).
September 25: August durable orders, second quarter GDP—third estimate, and expected earnings from Accenture (ACN), CarMax (KMX), and Costco (COST).
September 26: August PCE prices, personal spending, personal income, University of Michigan final September consumer sentiment.
September 29: Expected earnings from Carnival (CCL).
September 30: September Consumer Confidence, August JOLTS job openings, and expected earnings from Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) and Nike (NKE).

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