Week Ending March 6th, 2026

Tuesday's Market Moves

S&P 500 – 6,816.63 (-0.94%)

Dow Jones – 48,501.27 (-0.83%)

NASDAQ – 22,516.69 (-1.02%)

WAR CONCERNS & GEOPOLITICS

• President Trump has raised fears of a prolonged U.S. military engagement in Iran: “Right from the beginning, we projected four to five weeks, but we have the capability to go far longer than that.”
• Shifting justifications for military action—including regime change, preemptive strikes, and nuclear prevention—have created confusion among lawmakers, with U.S. casualties rising to six.
• Israel and U.S. airstrikes triggered further market volatility, particularly in materials and industrial stocks.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & FED POLICY

• Federal Reserve President John Williams highlighted that the Iran conflict increases near-term inflation uncertainty and economic risk.
• Energy price spikes in the first days of the conflict are expected to affect inflation, though the U.S. is less dependent on oil than decades ago.
• Markets now price in two Fed rate cuts this year to 3.00%–3.25%, faster than the Fed’s forecast, reflecting elevated inflation expectations (~4.35%).

ENERGY MARKETS

• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude continued to climb amid supply concerns from attacks on oil and gas infrastructure and tanker disruptions following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Energy shares rose, led by Exxon Mobil (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Chevron (CVX).
• Aluminum prices jumped after a major Middle East producer halted production and declared force majeure.

BANKING & TECHNOLOGY INFRASTRUCTURE

• Drone strikes on Amazon Web Services (AWS) data centers in the UAE and Bahrain caused outages affecting banking, payments, and enterprise services.
• Disrupted services included Careem, Alaan, Hubpay, Snowflake, ADCB, and Emirates NBD.
• The disruption contributed to global market volatility and raised concerns over energy and supply chain reliability.

STARTUPS & TECH FUNDING

• Mental health startup Grow Therapy raised $150 million in Series D funding, valuing the company at $3 billion, as it expands AI-powered therapy and insurer partnerships.
• The platform serves over 220 million patients via 125+ health insurer partnerships and aims to reduce provider documentation time while offering AI-supported client tools.
• Competing startups include Headway, Alma, and BetterHelp.

RETAIL & EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS

• Target reported another quarter of declining revenue and traffic but beat earnings expectations (EPS $2.44 vs. $2.16 expected).
• February sales showed year-over-year growth, signaling early signs of a turnaround under CEO Michael Fiddelke.
• Comparable sales decreased 2.5% YoY, reflecting ongoing challenges at physical stores, while online sales rose 1.9%.
• Best Buy rose on stronger-than-expected earnings per share despite slightly missing revenue forecasts.

OTHER CORPORATE MOVEMENTS

• Plug Power surged 25% after improving profits and a narrower loss; CEO Jose Luis Crespo expects profitability by 2027.
• Pinterest gained 7% after a $1 billion strategic investment from Elliott Management for stock repurchases.
• Sea Limited fell after missing quarterly earnings; Amazon dropped due to AWS disruptions.
• Apple slipped ahead of a “special experience” product event.

CONSUMER & TRAVEL IMPACTS

• Airline stocks (United Airlines, Delta, Southwest) declined on higher oil costs potentially reducing travel demand.
• Cruise lines, including Norwegian Cruise Line, dropped on disappointing revenue and guidance.
• Retailers and consumer-focused companies (Disney, Wendy’s, Ford, Lululemon, Estee Lauder) declined amid concerns of elevated oil-driven inflation.

DEFENSE SECTOR

• Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman gained amid expectations of higher U.S. defense spending if the conflict escalates.

CRYPTOCURRENCY & PRECIOUS METALS

• Bitcoin fell 3% after Monday’s rally; outflows from Iranian crypto exchanges spiked to over $2 million post-strikes.
• Gold and silver declined, despite gold’s nearly 20% year-to-date gains.

FIXED INCOME & TREASURIES

• 10-year Treasury yields rose above 3.95% (currently 4.08%) due to higher oil prices and stronger ISM manufacturing data, reflecting inflation concerns.

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"The stone age did not end because we ran out of stones, and the oil age will end long before the world runs out of oil."

— Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, former Saudi Oil Minister

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Notable Stocks

• Nvidia (NVDA)
• Target (TGT)
• Warner Brothers Discover (WBD)
• Apple (AAPL)
• Pinterest (PINS)

Weekly Notables

Fed's Williams: War In Iran Heightens Uncertainty in the Economy, Near-Term Inflation Outlook

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Tuesday that the Middle East war will affect the near-term inflation outlook and increase economic uncertainty. “Increases in energy prices, already seen in the first days of the war, are something that would obviously affect kind of a nearer-term inflation outlook. We'll have to see how persistent this is and how long this is, but it would have an effect on overall inflation,” Williams said.

Trump Administration Offers Shifting Narrative for U.S. War in Iran as Democrats Pounce

President Donald Trump has said combat will continue in Iran until U.S. “objectives” are complete, but those objectives and the justification for the war have remained fluid more than 48 hours into the conflict, raising questions about the administration’s motives and the extent of U.S. entanglement. The death toll for U.S. service members has risen to six. Analysts say the U.S. could be pursuing both regime change and functional disarmament of Iran — a long-term goal of multiple administrations. Trump and his proxies have not been aligned on the narrative, creating confusion over the endgame for the escalating conflict.

Earnings Spotlight: Oracle (ORCL)

Oracle is expected to report its earnings on March 9th. The software maker is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.70 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +15.7%. Revenues are expected to be $16.89 billion, up 19.5% from the year-ago quarter.

What's Ahead

March 4: February ADP Employment Report, February ISM Services PMI®, Fed Beige Book, and expected earnings from Broadcom (AVGO).
March 5: Fourth quarter productivity-preliminary, January factory orders, and expected earnings from Ciena (CIEN), JD.com (JD), Kroger (KR), Costco (COST), and Marvell Technology (MRVL).
March 6: February nonfarm payrolls.
March 9: Expected earnings from Oracle (ORCL), Hewlett-Packard (HPE), and Casey's General Stores (CASY).
March 10: February existing home sales and expected earnings from BioNTech (BNTX).